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Morava Vladičin Han vs Jedinstvo Paraćin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Morava Vladičin Han
Morava Vladičin Han
FT
0 – 2
Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
11/7/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 16Stadion FK Morava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Morava Vladičin Han47%
×Draw24%
Jedinstvo Paraćin29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morava Vladičin Han
1.65
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.25

Morava Vladičin Han creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 92 away

creates per match

Morava Vladičin Han
1.68
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.04

allows per match

Morava Vladičin Han
1.47
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.61

finishing

Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morava Vladičin Han ↓

Jedinstvo Paraćin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Morava Vladičin Han or draw
71%
Morava Vladičin Han or Jedinstvo Paraćin
76%
Draw or Jedinstvo Paraćin
53%

Winning margin

Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+
24%
Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals
81%
Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals
49%
Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals
23%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
71%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
36%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)
62%
Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morava Vladičin Han at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.61 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morava Vladičin Han attack 1.68 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.65

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.04 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Morava Vladičin Han scores more
47%
level
24%
Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
29%

Morava Vladičin Han at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Morava Vladičin Han will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Morava Vladičin Han 0–2 Jedinstvo Paraćin

Jedinstvo Paraćin beat Morava Vladičin Han 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Morava in Vladičin Han.