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Moratalaz vs Villaviciosa Odón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Moratalaz
Moratalaz
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 4
Villaviciosa Odón
Villaviciosa Odón
4/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 40Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Moratalaz47%
×Draw23%
Villaviciosa Odón30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moratalaz
1.80
Villaviciosa Odón
1.40

Moratalaz creates 29% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 20 away

creates per match

Moratalaz
1.31
Villaviciosa Odón
1.50

allows per match

Moratalaz
1.29
Villaviciosa Odón
2.30

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par
Villaviciosa Odón+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

Villaviciosa Odón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw
70%
Moratalaz or Villaviciosa Odón
77%
Draw or Villaviciosa Odón
53%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+
25%
Villaviciosa Odón wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals
83%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
54%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
27%
Villaviciosa Odón 1+ goals
75%
Villaviciosa Odón 2+ goals
41%
Villaviciosa Odón 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)
61%
Villaviciosa Odón (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Villaviciosa Odón away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + Villaviciosa Odón defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.80

Villaviciosa Odón attack 1.50 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Moratalaz scores more
47%
level
23%
Villaviciosa Odón scores more
30%

Moratalaz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Moratalaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moratalaz vs Villaviciosa Odón

Villaviciosa Odón beat Moratalaz 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz in Madrid.