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Moratalaz vs Ursaria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Moratalaz
Moratalaz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ursaria
Ursaria
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 36Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Moratalaz31%
×Draw27%
Ursaria42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moratalaz
1.11
Ursaria
1.33

Ursaria creates 20% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 35 away

creates per match

Moratalaz
1.31
Ursaria
1.37

allows per match

Moratalaz
1.29
Ursaria
0.91

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par
Ursaria+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

Ursaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw
58%
Moratalaz or Ursaria
73%
Draw or Ursaria
69%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+
12%
Ursaria wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals
67%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
30%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
10%
Ursaria 1+ goals
74%
Ursaria 2+ goals
38%
Ursaria 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)
43%
Ursaria (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Ursaria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + Ursaria defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ursaria attack 1.37 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Moratalaz scores more
31%
level
27%
Ursaria scores more
42%

Ursaria at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moratalaz vs Ursaria

Moratalaz and Ursaria drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz in Madrid.