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Moratalaz vs Tres Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Moratalaz
Moratalaz
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
3/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 32Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Moratalaz46%
×Draw25%
Tres Cantos29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moratalaz
1.53
Tres Cantos
1.16

Moratalaz creates 32% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 71 away

creates per match

Moratalaz
1.31
Tres Cantos
1.03

allows per match

Moratalaz
1.29
Tres Cantos
1.75

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par
Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

Tres Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw
71%
Moratalaz or Tres Cantos
75%
Draw or Tres Cantos
54%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+
23%
Tres Cantos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals
78%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
45%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
20%
Tres Cantos 1+ goals
69%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
32%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)
61%
Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Tres Cantos away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + Tres Cantos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.53

Tres Cantos attack 1.03 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Moratalaz scores more
46%
level
25%
Tres Cantos scores more
29%

Moratalaz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Moratalaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Moratalaz 1–3 Tres Cantos

Tres Cantos beat Moratalaz 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz in Madrid.