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Moratalaz vs Torrejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Moratalaz
Moratalaz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Torrejón
Torrejón
11/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 7Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Moratalaz40%
×Draw26%
Torrejón34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moratalaz
1.41
Torrejón
1.27

Moratalaz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 115 away

creates per match

Moratalaz
1.31
Torrejón
1.25

allows per match

Moratalaz
1.29
Torrejón
1.50

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par
Torrejón+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

Torrejón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw
66%
Moratalaz or Torrejón
74%
Draw or Torrejón
60%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+
19%
Torrejón wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals
76%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
41%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
17%
Torrejón 1+ goals
72%
Torrejón 2+ goals
36%
Torrejón 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)
54%
Torrejón (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Torrejón away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + Torrejón defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Torrejón attack 1.25 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Moratalaz scores more
40%
level
26%
Torrejón scores more
34%

Moratalaz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Moratalaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moratalaz vs Torrejón

Moratalaz and Torrejón drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz in Madrid.