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Moratalaz vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Moratalaz
Moratalaz
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
11/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Moratalaz46%
×Draw25%
San Fernando Henares29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moratalaz
1.57
San Fernando Henares
1.21

Moratalaz creates 30% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 29 away

creates per match

Moratalaz
1.31
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Moratalaz
1.29
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw
71%
Moratalaz or San Fernando Henares
75%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
54%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+
23%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals
79%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
46%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
21%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
70%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
34%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)
61%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.57

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Moratalaz scores more
46%
level
25%
San Fernando Henares scores more
29%

Moratalaz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Moratalaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Moratalaz 5 – 1 San Fernando Henares

Moratalaz beat San Fernando Henares 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz in Madrid.