Moratalaz 3–4 Leganés II: Result & Stats

Moratalaz

3 – 4

HT: 3 – 2

Leganés II

1/12/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Moratalaz32%

×Draw25%

Leganés II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoratalazExpected goals in this matchLeganés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.59

Moratalaz

1.31

Leganés II

1.59

Leganés II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 79 away

1.31

creates per match

1.89

1.29

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Moratalaz

1.31

Leganés II

1.89

allows per match

Moratalaz

1.29

Leganés II

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par

Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

Leganés II →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw

56%

Moratalaz or Leganés II

75%

Draw or Leganés II

68%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+

14%

Leganés II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals

73%

Moratalaz 2+ goals

38%

Moratalaz 3+ goals

14%

Leganés II 1+ goals

80%

Leganés II 2+ goals

47%

Leganés II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)

42%

Leganés II (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Moratalaz scores more

32%

level

25%

Leganés II scores more

44%

Leganés II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff