Moratalaz 2–1 Getafe II: Result & Stats

Moratalaz

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Getafe II

11/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 12Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Moratalaz33%

×Draw27%

Getafe II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoratalazExpected goals in this matchGetafe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.29

Moratalaz

1.16

Getafe II

1.29

Getafe II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 35 away

1.31

creates per match

1.29

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Moratalaz

1.31

Getafe II

1.29

allows per match

Moratalaz

1.29

Getafe II

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par

Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

Getafe II →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw

61%

Moratalaz or Getafe II

73%

Draw or Getafe II

67%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+

14%

Getafe II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals

69%

Moratalaz 2+ goals

32%

Moratalaz 3+ goals

11%

Getafe II 1+ goals

72%

Getafe II 2+ goals

37%

Getafe II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)

46%

Getafe II (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Getafe II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Getafe II attack 1.29 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Moratalaz scores more

33%

level

27%

Getafe II scores more

39%

Getafe II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff