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Moratalaz vs Atlético Pinto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Moratalaz
Moratalaz
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
10/20/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Moratalaz44%
×Draw26%
Atlético Pinto30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moratalaz
1.50
Atlético Pinto
1.20

Moratalaz creates 25% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 29 away

creates per match

Moratalaz
1.31
Atlético Pinto
1.10

allows per match

Moratalaz
1.29
Atlético Pinto
1.69

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par
Atlético Pinto+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

Atlético Pinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw
70%
Moratalaz or Atlético Pinto
74%
Draw or Atlético Pinto
56%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals
78%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
44%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
19%
Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
34%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)
59%
Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Atlético Pinto away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Atlético Pinto attack 1.10 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Moratalaz scores more
44%
level
26%
Atlético Pinto scores more
30%

Moratalaz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Moratalaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Moratalaz 3–2 Atlético Pinto

Moratalaz beat Atlético Pinto 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz in Madrid.