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Moratalaz vs Atlético Madrid II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Moratalaz
Moratalaz
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
2/12/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 28Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Moratalaz25%
×Draw27%
Atlético Madrid II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moratalaz
0.96
Atlético Madrid II
1.45

Atlético Madrid II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 20 away

creates per match

Moratalaz
1.31
Atlético Madrid II
1.60

allows per match

Moratalaz
1.29
Atlético Madrid II
0.60

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw
52%
Moratalaz or Atlético Madrid II
73%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
75%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+
9%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals
62%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
25%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
7%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
77%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
42%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)
34%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.96

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Moratalaz scores more
25%
level
27%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
48%

Atlético Madrid II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Moratalaz 0 – 2 Atlético Madrid II

Atlético Madrid II beat Moratalaz 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz in Madrid.