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Moralo vs Puebla Calzada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Moralo
Moralo
FT
5 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Puebla Calzada
Puebla Calzada
1/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 17Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Moralo61%
×Draw23%
Puebla Calzada15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moralo
1.75
Puebla Calzada
0.74

Moralo creates 136% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 34 away

creates per match

Moralo
1.72
Puebla Calzada
0.74

allows per match

Moralo
0.75
Puebla Calzada
1.79

finishing

Moralo+0.00on par
Puebla Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moralo ↓

Puebla Calzada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Moralo or draw
85%
Moralo or Puebla Calzada
77%
Draw or Puebla Calzada
39%

Winning margin

Moralo wins by 2+
35%
Puebla Calzada wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Moralo 1+ goals
83%
Moralo 2+ goals
52%
Moralo 3+ goals
25%
Puebla Calzada 1+ goals
52%
Puebla Calzada 2+ goals
17%
Puebla Calzada 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Moralo (draw refunded)
80%
Puebla Calzada (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moralo at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.75 · 109 matches

Puebla Calzada away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moralo attack 1.72 + Puebla Calzada defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.75

Puebla Calzada attack 0.74 + Moralo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Moralo scores more
61%
level
23%
Puebla Calzada scores more
15%

Moralo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Moralo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moralo vs Puebla Calzada

Moralo beat Puebla Calzada 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata in Navalmoral de la Mata.