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Moralo vs Extremadura 1924 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Moralo
Moralo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Extremadura 1924
Extremadura 1924
5/3/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 33Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Moralo40%
×Draw29%
Extremadura 192431%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moralo
1.16
Extremadura 1924
0.99

Moralo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

creates per match

Moralo
1.72
Extremadura 1924
1.24

allows per match

Moralo
0.75
Extremadura 1924
0.59

finishing

Moralo+0.00on par
Extremadura 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moralo ↓

Extremadura 1924 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Moralo or draw
69%
Moralo or Extremadura 1924
71%
Draw or Extremadura 1924
60%

Winning margin

Moralo wins by 2+
17%
Extremadura 1924 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Moralo 1+ goals
69%
Moralo 2+ goals
32%
Moralo 3+ goals
11%
Extremadura 1924 1+ goals
63%
Extremadura 1924 2+ goals
26%
Extremadura 1924 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Moralo (draw refunded)
56%
Extremadura 1924 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moralo at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.75 · 109 matches

Extremadura 1924 away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moralo attack 1.72 + Extremadura 1924 defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.16

Extremadura 1924 attack 1.24 + Moralo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Moralo scores more
40%
level
29%
Extremadura 1924 scores more
31%

Moralo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Moralo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moralo vs Extremadura 1924

Moralo beat Extremadura 1924 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata in Navalmoral de la Mata.