Moralo 0–0 Don Benito: Result & Stats

Moralo

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Don Benito

10/1/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 4Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Moralo35%

×Draw28%

Don Benito37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoraloExpected goals in this matchDon Benito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.20

Moralo

1.17

Don Benito

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 34 away

1.72

creates per match

1.65

0.75

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Moralo

1.72

Don Benito

1.65

allows per match

Moralo

0.75

Don Benito

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moralo+0.00on par

Don Benito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moralo ↓

Don Benito →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Moralo or draw

63%

Moralo or Don Benito

72%

Draw or Don Benito

65%

Winning margin

Moralo wins by 2+

15%

Don Benito wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Moralo 1+ goals

69%

Moralo 2+ goals

33%

Moralo 3+ goals

11%

Don Benito 1+ goals

70%

Don Benito 2+ goals

34%

Don Benito 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Moralo (draw refunded)

49%

Don Benito (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Moralo at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.75 · 109 matches

Don Benito away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Moralo attack 1.72 + Don Benito defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.17

Don Benito attack 1.65 + Moralo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Moralo scores more

35%

level

28%

Don Benito scores more

37%

Don Benito at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

G. Torres← S. Nakamura

51'

Dani Marín← O. Chit

57'

Pau Tejón← Josepe

60'

Ismael← Jonatan Jiménez

78'

Mario Lopez← Víctor Carretero

78'

Álvaro Monroy← Borja Domingo

Moralo

Don

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Benito Pineda

46'▲G. Torres←▼S. Nakamura

60'▲Ismael←▼Jonatan Jiménez

78'▲Mario Lopez←▼Víctor Carretero

Moralo substitutes

TorresIsmaelLopez

Manager: Juan Marrero

51'▲Dani Marín←▼O. Chit

57'▲Pau Tejón←▼Josepe

78'▲Álvaro Monroy←▼Borja Domingo

Don Benito substitutes

MarínTejónMonroy