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Moralo vs Castuera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Moralo
Moralo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Castuera
Castuera
9/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Moralo58%
×Draw24%
Castuera18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moralo
1.66
Castuera
0.81

Moralo creates 105% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 34 away

creates per match

Moralo
1.72
Castuera
0.88

allows per match

Moralo
0.75
Castuera
1.59

finishing

Moralo+0.00on par
Castuera+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moralo ↓

Castuera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Moralo or draw
82%
Moralo or Castuera
76%
Draw or Castuera
42%

Winning margin

Moralo wins by 2+
32%
Castuera wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Moralo 1+ goals
81%
Moralo 2+ goals
49%
Moralo 3+ goals
23%
Castuera 1+ goals
56%
Castuera 2+ goals
19%
Castuera 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Moralo (draw refunded)
76%
Castuera (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moralo at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.75 · 109 matches

Castuera away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moralo attack 1.72 + Castuera defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Castuera attack 0.88 + Moralo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Moralo scores more
58%
level
24%
Castuera scores more
18%

Moralo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Moralo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moralo vs Castuera

Moralo beat Castuera 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata in Navalmoral de la Mata.