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Moralo vs Cabeza Buey — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Moralo
Moralo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Cabeza Buey
Cabeza Buey
10/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 8Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Moralo49%
×Draw27%
Cabeza Buey24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moralo
1.42
Cabeza Buey
0.91

Moralo creates 56% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

creates per match

Moralo
1.72
Cabeza Buey
1.06

allows per match

Moralo
0.75
Cabeza Buey
1.12

finishing

Moralo+0.00on par
Cabeza Buey+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moralo ↓

Cabeza Buey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Moralo or draw
76%
Moralo or Cabeza Buey
73%
Draw or Cabeza Buey
51%

Winning margin

Moralo wins by 2+
24%
Cabeza Buey wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Moralo 1+ goals
76%
Moralo 2+ goals
41%
Moralo 3+ goals
17%
Cabeza Buey 1+ goals
60%
Cabeza Buey 2+ goals
23%
Cabeza Buey 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Moralo (draw refunded)
67%
Cabeza Buey (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moralo at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.75 · 109 matches

Cabeza Buey away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moralo attack 1.72 + Cabeza Buey defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cabeza Buey attack 1.06 + Moralo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Moralo scores more
49%
level
27%
Cabeza Buey scores more
24%

Moralo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Moralo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moralo vs Cabeza Buey

Cabeza Buey beat Moralo 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata in Navalmoral de la Mata.