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Moralo vs Aceuchal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Moralo
Moralo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aceuchal
Aceuchal
11/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 7Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Moralo56%
×Draw24%
Aceuchal19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moralo
1.66
Aceuchal
0.85

Moralo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 40 away

creates per match

Moralo
1.72
Aceuchal
0.95

allows per match

Moralo
0.75
Aceuchal
1.60

finishing

Moralo+0.00on par
Aceuchal+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moralo ↓

Aceuchal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Moralo or draw
81%
Moralo or Aceuchal
76%
Draw or Aceuchal
44%

Winning margin

Moralo wins by 2+
31%
Aceuchal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Moralo 1+ goals
81%
Moralo 2+ goals
49%
Moralo 3+ goals
23%
Aceuchal 1+ goals
57%
Aceuchal 2+ goals
21%
Aceuchal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Moralo (draw refunded)
75%
Aceuchal (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moralo at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.75 · 109 matches

Aceuchal away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moralo attack 1.72 + Aceuchal defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Aceuchal attack 0.95 + Moralo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Moralo scores more
56%
level
24%
Aceuchal scores more
19%

Moralo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Moralo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Moralo 1–0 Aceuchal

Moralo beat Aceuchal 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata in Navalmoral de la Mata.