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Mora vs Karlberg — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Mora
Mora
FT
1 – 3
Karlberg
Karlberg
10/5/2019Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Round 25Prästholmens IP Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mora21%
×Draw20%
Karlberg58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mora
1.24
Karlberg
2.17

Karlberg creates 75% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 48 away

creates per match

Mora
1.46
Karlberg
1.88

allows per match

Mora
2.46
Karlberg
1.02

finishing

Mora+0.00on par
Karlberg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mora ↓

Karlberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Mora or draw
42%
Mora or Karlberg
80%
Draw or Karlberg
79%

Winning margin

Mora wins by 2+
8%
Karlberg wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Mora 1+ goals
71%
Mora 2+ goals
35%
Mora 3+ goals
13%
Karlberg 1+ goals
89%
Karlberg 2+ goals
64%
Karlberg 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Mora (draw refunded)
27%
Karlberg (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mora at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Karlberg away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.02 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mora attack 1.46 + Karlberg defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.24

Karlberg attack 1.88 + Mora defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mora scores more
21%
level
20%
Karlberg scores more
58%

Karlberg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Karlberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Mora 1–3 Karlberg

Karlberg beat Mora 3-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Prästholmens IP Konstgräs in Mora.