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Mora vs Gute — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Mora
Mora
FT
2 – 2
Gute
Gute
9/7/2019Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Round 21Prästholmens IP Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mora35%
×Draw22%
Gute43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mora
1.76
Gute
1.95

Gute creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

creates per match

Mora
1.46
Gute
1.44

allows per match

Mora
2.46
Gute
2.07

finishing

Mora+0.00on par
Gute+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mora ↓

Gute →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Mora or draw
57%
Mora or Gute
78%
Draw or Gute
65%

Winning margin

Mora wins by 2+
18%
Gute wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Mora 1+ goals
83%
Mora 2+ goals
52%
Mora 3+ goals
26%
Gute 1+ goals
86%
Gute 2+ goals
58%
Gute 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Mora (draw refunded)
45%
Gute (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mora at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Gute away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.07 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mora attack 1.46 + Gute defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.76

Gute attack 1.44 + Mora defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mora scores more
35%
level
22%
Gute scores more
43%

Gute at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gute will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mora 2 – 2 Gute

Mora and Gute drew 2-2 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Prästholmens IP Konstgräs in Mora.