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Mora vs Gamla Upsala — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Mora
Mora
FT
1 – 4
Gamla Upsala
Gamla Upsala
6/23/2019Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Round 13Prästholmens IP Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mora33%
×Draw21%
Gamla Upsala46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mora
1.73
Gamla Upsala
2.09

Gamla Upsala creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Mora
1.46
Gamla Upsala
1.73

allows per match

Mora
2.46
Gamla Upsala
2.00

finishing

Mora+0.00on par
Gamla Upsala+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mora ↓

Gamla Upsala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Mora or draw
54%
Mora or Gamla Upsala
79%
Draw or Gamla Upsala
67%

Winning margin

Mora wins by 2+
16%
Gamla Upsala wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Mora 1+ goals
82%
Mora 2+ goals
52%
Mora 3+ goals
25%
Gamla Upsala 1+ goals
88%
Gamla Upsala 2+ goals
62%
Gamla Upsala 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Mora (draw refunded)
41%
Gamla Upsala (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mora at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Gamla Upsala away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.00 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mora attack 1.46 + Gamla Upsala defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Gamla Upsala attack 1.73 + Mora defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mora scores more
33%
level
21%
Gamla Upsala scores more
46%

Gamla Upsala at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gamla Upsala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Mora 1–4 Gamla Upsala

Gamla Upsala beat Mora 4-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on June 23, 2019.

The match was played at Prästholmens IP Konstgräs in Mora.