Mora 3–2 Enköping: Result & Stats

Mora

FT

3 – 2

Enköping

9/14/2019

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · Round 22Prästholmens IP Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mora31%

×Draw22%

Enköping47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoraExpected goals in this matchEnköping

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.94

Mora

1.55

Enköping

1.94

Enköping creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

1.46

creates per match

1.41

2.46

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Mora

1.46

Enköping

1.41

allows per match

Mora

2.46

Enköping

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mora+0.00on par

Enköping+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mora ↓

Enköping →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Mora or draw

53%

Mora or Enköping

78%

Draw or Enköping

69%

Winning margin

Mora wins by 2+

15%

Enköping wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Mora 1+ goals

79%

Mora 2+ goals

46%

Mora 3+ goals

20%

Enköping 1+ goals

86%

Enköping 2+ goals

58%

Enköping 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Mora (draw refunded)

40%

Enköping (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mora at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Enköping away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.65 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mora attack 1.46 + Enköping defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.55

Enköping attack 1.41 + Mora defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mora scores more

31%

level

22%

Enköping scores more

47%

Enköping at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Enköping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff