Monza 1–2 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Monza

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Udinese

A. Colpani 32'

D. Udogie 77'

Beto 36'

8/26/2022

Serie A · Round 3U-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Monza41%

×Draw27%

Udinese32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonzaExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.16

Monza

1.33

Udinese

1.16

Monza creates 15% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 33 away

1.10

creates per match

1.04

1.28

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Monza

1.10

Udinese

1.04

allows per match

Monza

1.28

Udinese

1.57

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Monza-0.10scores less

Udinese+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Monza or draw

68%

Monza or Udinese

73%

Draw or Udinese

59%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+

19%

Udinese wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals

74%

Monza 2+ goals

38%

Monza 3+ goals

15%

Udinese 1+ goals

69%

Udinese 2+ goals

32%

Udinese 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)

56%

Udinese (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 12 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.57 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.10 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Udinese attack 1.04 + Monza defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Monza scores more

41%

level

27%

Udinese scores more

32%

Monza at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

50

Rodrigo Becão

Udinese · D

7.7

Match Events

22'

Destiny Udogie

24'

Luca Caldirola

32'

A. Colpani↳ G. Caprari

36'

Beto↳ Rodrigo Becão

62'

M. Pessina← A. Colpani

62'

C. Gytkjær← A. Petagna

69'

T. Arslan← S. Lovrić

69'

I. Nestorovski← Deulofeu

69'

I. Success← Beto

70'

José Machín← M. Valoti

77'

D. Udogie↳ I. Nestorovski

80'

P. Ciurria← S. Molina

80'

V. Antov← S. Sensi

81'

E. Ebosse← D. Udogie

81'

L. Samardžić← J. Makengo

82'

José Machín

82'

Ilija Nestorovski

90+2'

Matteo Pessina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonzaUdinese

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots15

3Corners5

16Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots15

5On Target4

1Off Target4

4Blocked7

9Inside Box12

1Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

469Total Passes368

416Accurate Passes305

89%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides4

Match Recap: Monza vs Udinese

Udinese beat Monza 2-1 in Serie A on August 26, 2022.

Goals: A. Colpani (32'), Beto (36'), D. Udogie (77').

Monza controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at U-Power Stadium in Monza.

Monza vs Udinese — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Monza vs Udinese