Monza 1–1 Sudtirol: Result & Stats | Serie B

Monza

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sudtirol

M. Maric 32'

R. Odogwu 76'

12/8/2025

Serie B · Round 15Brianteo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Monza51%

×Draw26%

Sudtirol23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonzaExpected goals in this matchSudtirol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.92

Monza

1.50

Sudtirol

0.92

Monza creates 63% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 78 away

1.71

creates per match

1.08

0.76

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Monza

1.71

Sudtirol

1.08

allows per match

Monza

0.76

Sudtirol

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monza+0.00on par

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Sudtirol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Monza or draw

77%

Monza or Sudtirol

74%

Draw or Sudtirol

49%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+

26%

Sudtirol wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals

78%

Monza 2+ goals

44%

Monza 3+ goals

19%

Sudtirol 1+ goals

60%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

23%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)

69%

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.71 + Sudtirol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sudtirol attack 1.08 + Monza defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Monza scores more

51%

level

26%

Sudtirol scores more

23%

Monza at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

M. Adamonis

Sudtirol · G

8.0

Match Events

11'

Jacopo Martini

32'

M. Maric↳ A. Carboni

66'

F. Tait← J. Martini

66'

R. Odogwu← E. Pecorino

69'

69'

76'

80'

81'

N. Pietrangeli← D. Casiraghi

81'

S. Davi← H. El Kaouakibi

87'

Raphael Odogwu

87'

N. Galazzi← P. Ciurria

88'

A. Masiello← S. Tronchin

90+2'

Andrea Carboni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonzaSudtirol

Overview

63%Possession37%

11Total Shots13

3Corners0

15Fouls21

Shots

11Total Shots13

5On Target3

4Off Target5

2Blocked5

8Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

561Total Passes325

473Accurate Passes235

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls21

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1