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Monza vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Monza
Monza
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
L. Ravanelli 53'
11/2/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 11Brianteo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Monza52%
×Draw23%
Spezia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza
1.78
Spezia
1.15

Monza creates 55% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Monza
1.67
Spezia
1.46

allows per match

Monza
0.84
Spezia
1.89

finishing

Monza+0.16scores more
Spezia-0.33scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Monza or draw
75%
Monza or Spezia
77%
Draw or Spezia
48%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+
29%
Spezia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals
83%
Monza 2+ goals
53%
Monza 3+ goals
26%
Spezia 1+ goals
68%
Spezia 2+ goals
32%
Spezia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)
68%
Spezia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.84 · 12 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.89 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.67 + Spezia defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.78

Spezia attack 1.46 + Monza defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Monza scores more
52%
level
23%
Spezia scores more
25%

Monza at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
L. RavanelliMonzaMonza · D
8.9

Match Events

18'
Patrick Ciurria
53'
Gianluca Lapadula
53'
L. Ravanelli
57'
G. Di Serio← V. Vlahovic
68'
G. Caprari← K. Balde
68'
M. Maric← D. Mota
75'
Armando Izzo
76'
S. Birindelli← A. Colpani
76'
N. Galazzi← P. Ciurria
77'
R. Kouda← A. Candela
77'
E. Soleri← F. Cassata
79'
Fellipe Jack
84'
P. Hristov← A. Mateju
85'
Armando Izzo
85'
Armando Izzo
85'
P. Candelari← L. Vignali
88'
F. Delli Carri←

Possession

69%Monza

Shots

16Monza

Pass accuracy

56%Monza

Statistics

MonzaSpezia
Overview
69%Possession31%
16Total Shots4
8Corners1
18Fouls18
Shots
16Total Shots4
4On Target0
7Off Target2
5Blocked2
13Inside Box3
3Outside Box1
Passing
69%Possession31%
602Total Passes264
535Accurate Passes188
89%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls18
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Monza vs Spezia

Monza beat Spezia 1-0 in Serie B on November 2, 2025.

Goals: L. Ravanelli (53').

Monza controlled possession (69%) and registered 16 shots to 4.

The match was played at Brianteo in Monza.