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Monza vs Spal — Serie B 2018

Monza
Monza
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spal
Spal
9/25/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 1U-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Monza52%
×Draw26%
Spal21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza
1.49
Spal
0.84

Monza creates 77% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 60 away

creates per match

Monza
1.71
Spal
0.92

allows per match

Monza
0.76
Spal
1.27

finishing

Monza+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Monza or draw
79%
Monza or Spal
74%
Draw or Spal
48%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+
27%
Spal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals
77%
Monza 2+ goals
44%
Monza 3+ goals
19%
Spal 1+ goals
57%
Spal 2+ goals
21%
Spal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)
71%
Spal (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Spal away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.71 + Spal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.49

Spal attack 0.92 + Monza defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Monza scores more
52%
level
26%
Spal scores more
21%

Monza at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monza vs Spal

Monza and Spal drew 0-0 in Serie B on September 25, 2020.

The match was played at U-Power Stadium in Monza.