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Monza vs Nuova Cosenza — Serie B 2018

Monza
Monza
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Nuova Cosenza
Nuova Cosenza
11/30/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 15U-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Monza56%
×Draw25%
Nuova Cosenza19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza
1.63
Nuova Cosenza
0.83

Monza creates 96% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 134 away

creates per match

Monza
1.71
Nuova Cosenza
0.90

allows per match

Monza
0.76
Nuova Cosenza
1.54

finishing

Monza+0.00on par
Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Nuova Cosenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Monza or draw
81%
Monza or Nuova Cosenza
75%
Draw or Nuova Cosenza
44%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+
31%
Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals
80%
Monza 2+ goals
48%
Monza 3+ goals
22%
Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals
56%
Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals
20%
Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)
75%
Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Nuova Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.71 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.63

Nuova Cosenza attack 0.90 + Monza defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Monza scores more
56%
level
25%
Nuova Cosenza scores more
19%

Monza at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Monza 4–1 Nuova Cosenza

Monza beat Nuova Cosenza 4-1 in Serie B on November 30, 2021.

The match was played at U-Power Stadium in Monza.