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Monza vs Genoa — Serie A 2018

Monza
Monza
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Genoa
Genoa
8/24/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 2U-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Monza40%
×Draw29%
Genoa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza
1.16
Genoa
0.99

Monza creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

creates per match

Monza
0.84
Genoa
1.04

allows per match

Monza
0.93
Genoa
1.47

finishing

Monza-0.01on par
Genoa-0.11scores less

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Monza or draw
69%
Monza or Genoa
71%
Draw or Genoa
60%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+
17%
Genoa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals
69%
Monza 2+ goals
32%
Monza 3+ goals
11%
Genoa 1+ goals
63%
Genoa 2+ goals
26%
Genoa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)
56%
Genoa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.93 · 6 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 0.84 + Genoa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.16

Genoa attack 1.04 + Monza defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Monza scores more
40%
level
29%
Genoa scores more
31%

Monza at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Monza 0–1 Genoa

Genoa beat Monza 1-0 in Serie A on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at U-Power Stadium in Monza.