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Monza vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Monza
Monza
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cesena
Cesena
P. Obiang 37'
11/23/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 13Brianteo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Monza54%
×Draw26%
Cesena20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza
1.50
Cesena
0.80

Monza creates 88% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Monza
1.74
Cesena
0.82

allows per match

Monza
0.79
Cesena
1.27

finishing

Monza-0.01on par
Cesena-0.65scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Cesena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Monza or draw
80%
Monza or Cesena
74%
Draw or Cesena
46%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+
28%
Cesena wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals
78%
Monza 2+ goals
44%
Monza 3+ goals
19%
Cesena 1+ goals
55%
Cesena 2+ goals
19%
Cesena 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)
73%
Cesena (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.79 · 11 matches

Cesena away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.27 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.74 + Cesena defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cesena attack 0.82 + Monza defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Monza scores more
54%
level
26%
Cesena scores more
20%

Monza at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
P. ObiangMonzaMonza · M
8.3

Match Events

37'
P. Obiang↳ D. Mota
61'
P. Ciurria← A. Colpani
61'
M. Olivieri← J. Blesa
69'
M. Maric← A. Alvarez
69'
L. Colombo← P. Obiang
71'
Cristian ShpendiGoal cancelled
75'
S. Bastoni← M. Francesconi
75'
E. Adamo← G. Frabotta
76'
Leonardo Colombo
82'
V. Magni← A. Ciofi
82'
F. Bertaccini← M. Castagnetti
83'
L. Lucchesi← A. Izzo
84'
F. Delli Carri← D. Mota

Possession

52%Monza

Shots

14Monza

Pass accuracy

50%Monza

Statistics

MonzaCesena
Overview
52%Possession48%
14Total Shots15
1.16Expected Goals (xG)0.63
6Corners7
3Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots15
1On Target4
8Off Target4
5Blocked7
8Inside Box6
6Outside Box9
Passing
52%Possession48%
555Total Passes502
485Accurate Passes443
87%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
3Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides6

Serie B: Monza 1–0 Cesena

Monza beat Cesena 1-0 in Serie B on November 23, 2025.

Goals: P. Obiang (37').

Monza controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Brianteo in Monza.