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Monza vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Monza
Monza
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bari
Bari
M. Pessina 79'
P. Obiang 50'
4/11/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 34Brianteo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Monza64%
×Draw21%
Bari14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza
1.90
Bari
0.76

Monza creates 150% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Monza
1.94
Bari
0.72

allows per match

Monza
0.80
Bari
1.86

finishing

Monza-0.05on par
Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Bari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Monza or draw
86%
Monza or Bari
79%
Draw or Bari
36%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+
39%
Bari wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals
85%
Monza 2+ goals
56%
Monza 3+ goals
29%
Bari 1+ goals
53%
Bari 2+ goals
18%
Bari 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)
82%
Bari (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.80 · 9 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.94 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.90

Bari attack 0.72 + Monza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Monza scores more
64%
level
21%
Bari scores more
14%

Monza at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
P. ObiangMonzaMonza · M
8.6

Match Events

50'
P. Obiang↳ A. Petagna
64'
Giulio Maggiore
66'
L. Colombo← P. Obiang
66'
M. Verreth← G. Maggiore
66'
M. Dorval← M. Mane
67'
G. Caso← D. Mota
67'
A. Bakoune← S. Birindelli
70'
Andrea Petagna
79'
M. Pessina↳ G. Caso
82'
N. Cavuoti← K. Piscopo
82'
M. Cuni← T. Esteves
83'
A. Alvarez← A. Petagna
83'
C. Gytkjaer← G. Moncini
89'
A. Carboni← L. Lucchesi
90+4'
Mehdi Dorval

Possession

65%Monza

Shots

18Monza

Pass accuracy

52%Monza

Statistics

MonzaBari
Overview
65%Possession35%
18Total Shots7
2.01Expected Goals (xG)0.21
7Corners1
8Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots7
8On Target0
4Off Target4
6Blocked3
15Inside Box2
3Outside Box5
Passing
65%Possession35%
551Total Passes301
478Accurate Passes241
87%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
-0.10Goals Prevented-0.10
Discipline
8Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Monza 2 – 0 Bari

Monza beat Bari 2-0 in Serie B on April 11, 2026.

Goals: P. Obiang (50'), M. Pessina (79').

Monza controlled possession (65%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Brianteo in Monza.