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Monza vs Avellino — Serie B 2018

Monza
Monza
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avellino
Avellino
M. Pessina 86' (pen)
P. Cutrone 78'
T. Biasci 53'
2/8/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 23Brianteo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Monza67%
×Draw21%
Avellino12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza
1.88
Avellino
0.64

Monza creates 194% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Monza
1.94
Avellino
0.48

allows per match

Monza
0.80
Avellino
1.82

finishing

Monza-0.05on par
Avellino+0.02on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Avellino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Monza or draw
88%
Monza or Avellino
79%
Draw or Avellino
33%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+
41%
Avellino wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals
85%
Monza 2+ goals
56%
Monza 3+ goals
29%
Avellino 1+ goals
47%
Avellino 2+ goals
14%
Avellino 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)
85%
Avellino (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.80 · 9 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.82 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.94 + Avellino defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.88

Avellino attack 0.48 + Monza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Monza scores more
67%
level
21%
Avellino scores more
12%

Monza at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
G. DaffaraAvellinoAvellino · G
10.0

Match Events

30'
Paulo AzziPenalty cancelled
34'
Patrick Enrici
53'
T. Biasci↳ M. Sala
60'
P. Cutrone← D. Mota
60'
G. Caso← Hernani
64'
M. Armellino← M. Palumbo
65'
G. Tutino← C. Patierno
68'
P. Ciurria← A. Brorsson
75'
L. Colombo← P. Obiang
75'
A. Alvarez← A. Colpani
78'
P. Cutrone
79'
Andrea Le Borgne
81'
L. Pandolfi← T. Biasci
81'
T. Cancellotti← M. Sala
86'
M. PessinaPenalty
87'
R. Insigne← P. Enrici
90+5'
Filippo Missori

Possession

58%Monza

Shots

33Monza

Pass accuracy

53%Monza

Statistics

MonzaAvellino
Overview
58%Possession42%
33Total Shots3
3.08Expected Goals (xG)0.21
15Corners2
10Fouls14
Shots
33Total Shots3
9On Target2
11Off Target1
13Blocked0
24Inside Box2
9Outside Box1
Passing
58%Possession42%
440Total Passes341
362Accurate Passes249
82%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
2.27Goals Prevented2.27
Discipline
10Fouls14
0Yellow Cards3
3Offsides3

Serie B: Monza 2–1 Avellino

Monza beat Avellino 2-1 in Serie B on February 8, 2026.

Goals: T. Biasci (53'), P. Cutrone (78'), M. Pessina (86' pen).

Monza controlled possession (58%) and registered 33 shots to 3.

The match was played at Brianteo in Monza.