Monza U20 1–2 Torino U20: Result & Stats

Monza U20

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Torino U20

5/3/2025

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 36Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Monza U2042%

×Draw25%

Torino U2033%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monza U20Expected goals in this matchTorino U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.31

Monza U20

1.53

Torino U20

1.31

Monza U20 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.39

creates per match

1.24

1.39

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Monza U20

1.39

Torino U20

1.24

allows per match

Monza U20

1.39

Torino U20

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monza U20+0.00on par

Torino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U20 ↓

Torino U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Monza U20 or draw

67%

Monza U20 or Torino U20

75%

Draw or Torino U20

58%

Winning margin

Monza U20 wins by 2+

21%

Torino U20 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Monza U20 1+ goals

78%

Monza U20 2+ goals

45%

Monza U20 3+ goals

20%

Torino U20 1+ goals

73%

Torino U20 2+ goals

38%

Torino U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Monza U20 (draw refunded)

57%

Torino U20 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Torino U20 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U20 attack 1.39 + Torino U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

Torino U20 attack 1.24 + Monza U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Monza U20 scores more

42%

level

25%

Torino U20 scores more

33%

Monza U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Monza U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff