Monza U20 0–1 Lazio U20: Result & Stats

Monza U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lazio U20

F. Serra 55'

1/25/2026

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 22Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Monza U2039%

×Draw28%

Lazio U2033%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monza U20Expected goals in this matchLazio U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.14

Monza U20

1.27

Lazio U20

1.14

Monza U20 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.39

creates per match

0.89

1.39

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Monza U20

1.39

Lazio U20

0.89

allows per match

Monza U20

1.39

Lazio U20

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monza U20+0.00on par

Lazio U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U20 ↓

Lazio U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Monza U20 or draw

67%

Monza U20 or Lazio U20

72%

Draw or Lazio U20

61%

Winning margin

Monza U20 wins by 2+

17%

Lazio U20 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Monza U20 1+ goals

72%

Monza U20 2+ goals

36%

Monza U20 3+ goals

14%

Lazio U20 1+ goals

68%

Lazio U20 2+ goals

32%

Lazio U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Monza U20 (draw refunded)

54%

Lazio U20 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Lazio U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U20 attack 1.39 + Lazio U20 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lazio U20 attack 0.89 + Monza U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Monza U20 scores more

39%

level

28%

Lazio U20 scores more

33%

Monza U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Monza U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

F. Serra

Monza

Lazio

22

2

6

7

10

13

17

⚽

20

24

30

77

43

2

3

4

8

53

50

33

39

90

52

Monza U20 substitutes

12Montagna6Romanini11Attinasi17Fardin18Treffiletti13Castelli42Iuliani55Zanni77Ganci80Rossini95Porta

Lazio U20 substitutes

1Bosi3Calvani4Battisti8Milillo9Sulejmani11Marinaj14Trifelli19Canali21Montano25Iorio33Cangemi

Campionato Primavera - 1: Monza U20 0–1 Lazio U20

Lazio U20 beat Monza U20 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on January 25, 2026.

Goals: F. Serra (55').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi.

Monza U20 vs Lazio U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Campionato Primavera - 1: Monza U20 0–1 Lazio U20