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Monza U20 vs Frosinone U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Monza U20
Monza U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Frosinone U20
Frosinone U20
4/18/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 34Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Monza U2048%
×Draw24%
Frosinone U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza U20
1.69
Frosinone U20
1.22

Monza U20 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Monza U20
1.39
Frosinone U20
1.05

allows per match

Monza U20
1.39
Frosinone U20
2.00

finishing

Monza U20+0.00on par
Frosinone U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U20 ↓

Frosinone U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Monza U20 or draw
72%
Monza U20 or Frosinone U20
76%
Draw or Frosinone U20
52%

Winning margin

Monza U20 wins by 2+
26%
Frosinone U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Monza U20 1+ goals
82%
Monza U20 2+ goals
50%
Monza U20 3+ goals
24%
Frosinone U20 1+ goals
70%
Frosinone U20 2+ goals
34%
Frosinone U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Monza U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Frosinone U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Frosinone U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U20 attack 1.39 + Frosinone U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Frosinone U20 attack 1.05 + Monza U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Monza U20 scores more
48%
level
24%
Frosinone U20 scores more
28%

Monza U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Monza U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monza U20 vs Frosinone U20

Frosinone U20 beat Monza U20 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi.