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Monza U20 vs Cremonese U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Monza U20
Monza U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cremonese U20
Cremonese U20
4/6/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 32Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Monza U2044%
×Draw25%
Cremonese U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza U20
1.50
Cremonese U20
1.21

Monza U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Monza U20
1.39
Cremonese U20
1.03

allows per match

Monza U20
1.39
Cremonese U20
1.61

finishing

Monza U20+0.00on par
Cremonese U20+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U20 ↓

Cremonese U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Monza U20 or draw
69%
Monza U20 or Cremonese U20
75%
Draw or Cremonese U20
56%

Winning margin

Monza U20 wins by 2+
22%
Cremonese U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Monza U20 1+ goals
78%
Monza U20 2+ goals
44%
Monza U20 3+ goals
19%
Cremonese U20 1+ goals
70%
Cremonese U20 2+ goals
34%
Cremonese U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Monza U20 (draw refunded)
59%
Cremonese U20 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Cremonese U20 away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U20 attack 1.39 + Cremonese U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cremonese U20 attack 1.03 + Monza U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Monza U20 scores more
44%
level
25%
Cremonese U20 scores more
31%

Monza U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Monza U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monza U20 vs Cremonese U20

Monza U20 and Cremonese U20 drew 2-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi in Monza.