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Monza U20 vs Cesena U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Monza U20
Monza U20
Preview
10:00
Cesena U20
Cesena U20
2/13/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 24Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi
39%
Monza U20
model favours
39%24%37%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Monza U2039%
×Draw24%
Cesena U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza U20
1.60
Cesena U20
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

creates per match

Monza U20
1.39
Cesena U20
1.74

allows per match

Monza U20
1.39
Cesena U20
1.82

finishing

Monza U20+0.00on par
Cesena U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U20 ↓

Cesena U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Monza U20 or draw
63%
Monza U20 or Cesena U20
76%
Draw or Cesena U20
61%

Winning margin

Monza U20 wins by 2+
19%
Cesena U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Monza U20 1+ goals
80%
Monza U20 2+ goals
47%
Monza U20 3+ goals
22%
Cesena U20 1+ goals
79%
Cesena U20 2+ goals
46%
Cesena U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Monza U20 (draw refunded)
51%
Cesena U20 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Cesena U20 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.82 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U20 attack 1.39 + Cesena U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cesena U20 attack 1.74 + Monza U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Monza U20 scores more
39%
level
24%
Cesena U20 scores more
37%

Monza U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Monza U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Monza U20 sit 15, Cesena U20 3 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DLDLL
U20
LWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Monza U20 face Cesena U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 returns with Monza U20 hosting Cesena U20. Match starts February 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Monza U20 host Cesena U20 at Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.