Monza U20 1–3 Cesena U20: Result & Stats

Monza U20

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Cesena U20

T. Azarovs 49'

F. Tosku 45', 12', 2'

3/16/2026

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 30Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Monza U2039%

×Draw24%

Cesena U2037%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monza U20Expected goals in this matchCesena U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.56

Monza U20

1.60

Cesena U20

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

1.39

creates per match

1.74

1.39

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Monza U20

1.39

Cesena U20

1.74

allows per match

Monza U20

1.39

Cesena U20

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monza U20+0.00on par

Cesena U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U20 ↓

Cesena U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Monza U20 or draw

63%

Monza U20 or Cesena U20

76%

Draw or Cesena U20

61%

Winning margin

Monza U20 wins by 2+

19%

Cesena U20 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Monza U20 1+ goals

80%

Monza U20 2+ goals

47%

Monza U20 3+ goals

22%

Cesena U20 1+ goals

79%

Cesena U20 2+ goals

46%

Cesena U20 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Monza U20 (draw refunded)

51%

Cesena U20 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Cesena U20 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.82 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U20 attack 1.39 + Cesena U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cesena U20 attack 1.74 + Monza U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Monza U20 scores more

39%

level

24%

Cesena U20 scores more

37%

Monza U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Monza U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

F. Tosku

12'

F. Tosku

34'

G. Fardin←

43'

45'

46'

46'

49'

64'

65'

G. Martone← A. Diene

76'

J. Longhi← S. Albe

76'

P. Baietta← D. Marini

76'

E. Casadei← F. Tosku

80'

M. Zaghini← M. Kebbeh

80'

T. Gasperini← R. Domeniconi

Monza

Cesena

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

34'▲G. Fardin←▼—

46'▲M. Gaye←▼N. Ballabio

65'▲G. Martone←▼A. Diene

76'▲J. Longhi←▼S. Albe

Monza U20 substitutes

MontagnaBuonaiutoTreffilettiGanciRossiniPortaFardinCastelliRomaniniScaramelliGayeAzarovsMartoneLonghi

46'▲F. Berti←▼E. Amadori

76'▲P. Baietta←▼D. Marini

76'▲E. Casadei←▼F. Tosku

80'▲M. Zaghini←▼M. Kebbeh

80'▲T. Gasperini←▼R. Domeniconi

Cesena U20 substitutes

DorigoBaiettaZaghiniWadeSanajLantignottiBertiBertacciniRossettiBiguzziCasadeiRibelloAbbondanzaGasperini