Monza U19 2–3 Roma U19: Result & Stats

Monza U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Roma U19

10/30/2023

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 8Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Monza U1930%

×Draw22%

Roma U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monza U19Expected goals in this matchRoma U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.02

Monza U19

1.54

Roma U19

2.02

Roma U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

1.65

creates per match

1.93

2.12

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Monza U19

1.65

Roma U19

1.93

allows per match

Monza U19

2.12

Roma U19

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monza U19+0.00on par

Roma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U19 ↓

Roma U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Monza U19 or draw

51%

Monza U19 or Roma U19

78%

Draw or Roma U19

70%

Winning margin

Monza U19 wins by 2+

14%

Roma U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Monza U19 1+ goals

79%

Monza U19 2+ goals

45%

Monza U19 3+ goals

20%

Roma U19 1+ goals

87%

Roma U19 2+ goals

60%

Roma U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Monza U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Roma U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Roma U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U19 attack 1.65 + Roma U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.54

Roma U19 attack 1.93 + Monza U19 defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Monza U19 scores more

30%

level

22%

Roma U19 scores more

49%

Roma U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Roma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff