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Monza U19 vs FeralpiSalò U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Monza U19
Monza U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FeralpiSalò U19
FeralpiSalò U19
1/21/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 15Campo Monzello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Monza U1960%
×Draw20%
FeralpiSalò U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza U19
2.21
FeralpiSalò U19
1.18

Monza U19 creates 87% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 46 away

creates per match

Monza U19
2.29
FeralpiSalò U19
0.85

allows per match

Monza U19
1.51
FeralpiSalò U19
2.13

finishing

Monza U19+0.00on par
FeralpiSalò U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U19 ↓

FeralpiSalò U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Monza U19 or draw
80%
Monza U19 or FeralpiSalò U19
80%
Draw or FeralpiSalò U19
40%

Winning margin

Monza U19 wins by 2+
38%
FeralpiSalò U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Monza U19 1+ goals
89%
Monza U19 2+ goals
65%
Monza U19 3+ goals
38%
FeralpiSalò U19 1+ goals
69%
FeralpiSalò U19 2+ goals
33%
FeralpiSalò U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Monza U19 (draw refunded)
76%
FeralpiSalò U19 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U19 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.51 · 41 matches

FeralpiSalò U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.13 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U19 attack 2.29 + FeralpiSalò U19 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.21

FeralpiSalò U19 attack 0.85 + Monza U19 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Monza U19 scores more
60%
level
20%
FeralpiSalò U19 scores more
20%

Monza U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Monza U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Monza U19 3–1 FeralpiSalò U19

Monza U19 beat FeralpiSalò U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on January 21, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Monzello in Monza.