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Monza U19 vs Bologna U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Monza U19
Monza U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bologna U19
Bologna U19
2/10/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 21Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Monza U1940%
×Draw23%
Bologna U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza U19
1.76
Bologna U19
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 67 away

creates per match

Monza U19
1.65
Bologna U19
1.24

allows per match

Monza U19
2.12
Bologna U19
1.88

finishing

Monza U19+0.00on par
Bologna U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U19 ↓

Bologna U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Monza U19 or draw
63%
Monza U19 or Bologna U19
77%
Draw or Bologna U19
60%

Winning margin

Monza U19 wins by 2+
21%
Bologna U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Monza U19 1+ goals
83%
Monza U19 2+ goals
52%
Monza U19 3+ goals
26%
Bologna U19 1+ goals
81%
Bologna U19 2+ goals
50%
Bologna U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Monza U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Bologna U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Bologna U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U19 attack 1.65 + Bologna U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

Bologna U19 attack 1.24 + Monza U19 defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Monza U19 scores more
40%
level
23%
Bologna U19 scores more
37%

Monza U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Monza U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monza U19 vs Bologna U19

Monza U19 and Bologna U19 drew 2-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi in Monza.