Monza U19 1–1 Alessandria U19: Result & Stats

Monza U19

FT

1 – 1

Alessandria U19

11/20/2021

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 9Campo Monzello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Monza U1960%

×Draw19%

Alessandria U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monza U19Expected goals in this matchAlessandria U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.33

Monza U19

2.37

Alessandria U19

1.33

Monza U19 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 43 away

2.29

creates per match

1.16

1.51

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Monza U19

2.29

Alessandria U19

1.16

allows per match

Monza U19

1.51

Alessandria U19

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monza U19+0.00on par

Alessandria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U19 ↓

Alessandria U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Monza U19 or draw

79%

Monza U19 or Alessandria U19

81%

Draw or Alessandria U19

40%

Winning margin

Monza U19 wins by 2+

38%

Alessandria U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Monza U19 1+ goals

91%

Monza U19 2+ goals

68%

Monza U19 3+ goals

42%

Alessandria U19 1+ goals

74%

Alessandria U19 2+ goals

38%

Alessandria U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Monza U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Alessandria U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U19 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.51 · 41 matches

Alessandria U19 away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.44 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U19 attack 2.29 + Alessandria U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.37

Alessandria U19 attack 1.16 + Monza U19 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Monza U19 scores more

60%

level

19%

Alessandria U19 scores more

21%

Monza U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Monza U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff