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Monza U19 vs AlbinoLeffe U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Monza U19
Monza U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
AlbinoLeffe U19
AlbinoLeffe U19
2/18/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 19Campo Monzello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Monza U1954%
×Draw21%
AlbinoLeffe U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza U19
2.09
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.38

Monza U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 63 away

creates per match

Monza U19
2.29
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.25

allows per match

Monza U19
1.51
AlbinoLeffe U19
1.90

finishing

Monza U19+0.00on par
AlbinoLeffe U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U19 ↓

AlbinoLeffe U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Monza U19 or draw
75%
Monza U19 or AlbinoLeffe U19
79%
Draw or AlbinoLeffe U19
46%

Winning margin

Monza U19 wins by 2+
32%
AlbinoLeffe U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Monza U19 1+ goals
88%
Monza U19 2+ goals
62%
Monza U19 3+ goals
34%
AlbinoLeffe U19 1+ goals
75%
AlbinoLeffe U19 2+ goals
40%
AlbinoLeffe U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Monza U19 (draw refunded)
68%
AlbinoLeffe U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U19 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.51 · 41 matches

AlbinoLeffe U19 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.90 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U19 attack 2.29 + AlbinoLeffe U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.09

AlbinoLeffe U19 attack 1.25 + Monza U19 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Monza U19 scores more
54%
level
21%
AlbinoLeffe U19 scores more
25%

Monza U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Monza U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monza U19 vs AlbinoLeffe U19

Monza U19 beat AlbinoLeffe U19 3-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Monzello in Monza.