Montrose 0–2 Stenhousemuir: Result & Stats

Montrose

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Stenhousemuir

7/19/2022

League Cup · Group Stage - 6Links Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Montrose57%

×Draw23%

Stenhousemuir21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontroseExpected goals in this matchStenhousemuir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.02

Montrose

1.85

Stenhousemuir

1.02

Montrose creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

1.07

creates per match

0.71

1.33

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Montrose

1.07

Stenhousemuir

0.71

allows per match

Montrose

1.33

Stenhousemuir

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

Stenhousemuir →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Montrose or draw

79%

Montrose or Stenhousemuir

77%

Draw or Stenhousemuir

43%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+

33%

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals

84%

Montrose 2+ goals

55%

Montrose 3+ goals

28%

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals

64%

Stenhousemuir 2+ goals

27%

Stenhousemuir 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)

73%

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 1.07 + Stenhousemuir defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.85

Stenhousemuir attack 0.71 + Montrose defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Montrose scores more

57%

level

23%

Stenhousemuir scores more

21%

Montrose at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Montrose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff