Montrose 0–1 ST Johnstone: Result & Stats

Montrose

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ST Johnstone

T. Watt 34'

7/21/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 5Links Park (Montrose)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Montrose25%

×Draw26%

ST Johnstone50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontroseExpected goals in this matchST Johnstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.54

Montrose

1.01

ST Johnstone

1.54

ST Johnstone creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

1.07

creates per match

1.74

1.33

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Montrose

1.07

ST Johnstone

1.74

allows per match

Montrose

1.33

ST Johnstone

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

ST Johnstone →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Montrose or draw

50%

Montrose or ST Johnstone

74%

Draw or ST Johnstone

75%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals

64%

Montrose 2+ goals

27%

Montrose 3+ goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

79%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

45%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)

33%

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 1.07 + ST Johnstone defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.01

ST Johnstone attack 1.74 + Montrose defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Montrose scores more

25%

level

26%

ST Johnstone scores more

50%

ST Johnstone at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

T. Watt↳ S. Tanser

46'

R. Ferguson← M. Bolochoweckyj

55'

D.J. Cavanagh← P. Watson

67'

S. Scougall← T. Watt

76'

R. Campbell← P. Cregg

77'

C. Hendry← D. McMillan

Montrose

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Petrie

46'▲R. Ferguson←▼M. Bolochoweckyj

55'▲D.J. Cavanagh←▼P. Watson

76'▲R. Campbell←▼P. Cregg

Montrose substitutes

11Ferguson15Cavanagh10Campbell1Fleming7Webster2Masson24Skelly

Manager: T. Wright

67'▲S. Scougall←▼T. Watt

77'▲C. Hendry←▼D. McMillan

ST Johnstone substitutes

21Scougall22Hendry6Anderson10Wotherspoon20McClean30Hurst14Comrie

Match Recap: Montrose vs ST Johnstone

ST Johnstone beat Montrose 1-0 in League Cup on July 21, 2018.

Goals: T. Watt (34').

The match was played at Links Park (Montrose).

Montrose vs ST Johnstone — League Cup 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Montrose vs ST Johnstone