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Montrose vs Partick — League #182 2026

Montrose
Montrose
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Partick
Partick
9/7/2019League #182League #182 · 3rd RoundLinks Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Montrose26%
×Draw21%
Partick53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montrose
1.42
Partick
2.08

Partick creates 46% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Montrose
2.50
Partick
2.67

allows per match

Montrose
1.50
Partick
0.33

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par
Partick+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

Partick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Montrose or draw
47%
Montrose or Partick
79%
Draw or Partick
74%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+
11%
Partick wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals
76%
Montrose 2+ goals
41%
Montrose 3+ goals
17%
Partick 1+ goals
87%
Partick 2+ goals
61%
Partick 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)
33%
Partick (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Partick away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 2.50 + Partick defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Partick attack 2.67 + Montrose defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Montrose scores more
26%
level
21%
Partick scores more
53%

Partick at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Partick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montrose vs Partick

Partick beat Montrose 2-0 in League #182 on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Links Park in Montrose.