Montrose 1–1 Motherwell: Result & Stats

Montrose

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Motherwell

C. Brown 120+9' (pen)

B. Maciver-Redwood 120+7' (pen)

A. Shrive 120+3' (pen), 86'

M. Gardyne 120+1' (pen)

M. Ebiye 120+10' (pen)

S. O'Donnell 120+8' (pen)

L. Miller 120+5' (pen)

S. Blaney 120+4' (pen), 31'

F. Stuparević 120+2' (pen)

7/16/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 2Links Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Montrose25%

×Draw27%

Motherwell48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontroseExpected goals in this matchMotherwell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.40

Montrose

0.92

Motherwell

1.40

Motherwell creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

1.07

creates per match

1.46

1.33

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Montrose

1.07

Motherwell

1.46

allows per match

Montrose

1.33

Motherwell

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par

Motherwell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

Motherwell →

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–34%

0–42%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Montrose or draw

52%

Montrose or Motherwell

73%

Draw or Motherwell

75%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+

Motherwell wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals

60%

Montrose 2+ goals

23%

Montrose 3+ goals

Motherwell 1+ goals

75%

Motherwell 2+ goals

41%

Motherwell 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)

34%

Motherwell (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Motherwell away — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 1.07 + Motherwell defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.92

Motherwell attack 1.46 + Montrose defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Montrose scores more

25%

level

27%

Motherwell scores more

48%

Motherwell at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

S. Blaney↳ H. Paton

46'

Matheus Machado← R. Bradford

46'

B. Maciver-Redwood← T. Masson

57'

C. Brown← B. Hermiston

57'

C. Smith← A. Quinn

65'

M. Ebiye← A. Halliday

73'

A. Martin← R. Williamson

78'

H. Paton

80'

M. Ferrie← Z. Robinson

86'

A. Shrive↳ C. Brown

88'

F. Stuparević← H. Paton

120+1'

M. GardynePenalty

120+2'

F. StuparevićPenalty

120+3'

A. ShrivePenalty

120+4'

S. BlaneyPenalty

120+5'

L. MillerPenalty

120+6'

A. SteevesMissed penalty

120+7'

B. Maciver-RedwoodPenalty

120+8'

S. O'DonnellPenalty

120+9'

C. BrownPenalty

120+10'

M. EbiyePenalty

Montrose

Motherwell

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: S. Petrie

46'▲Matheus Machado←▼R. Bradford

46'▲B. Maciver-Redwood←▼T. Masson

57'▲C. Brown←▼B. Hermiston

57'▲C. Smith←▼A. Quinn

73'▲A. Martin←▼R. Williamson

Montrose substitutes

23Machado15Maciver-Redwood22Brown18Smith25Martin21Matthews8Donaldson16Emslie24Cochrane

Manager: S. Kettlewell

65'▲M. Ebiye←▼A. Halliday

80'▲M. Ferrie←▼Z. Robinson

88'▲F. Stuparević←▼H. Paton

Motherwell substitutes

24Ebiye29Ferrie17Stuparević21Kaleta5Balmer1Hegyi27Wells28Ross

Match Recap: Montrose vs Motherwell

Montrose and Motherwell drew 1-1 in League Cup on July 16, 2024.

Goals: S. Blaney (31', 120+4' pen), A. Shrive (86', 120+3' pen), M. Gardyne (120+1' pen), F. Stuparević (120+2' pen), L. Miller (120+5' pen), B. Maciver-Redwood (120+7' pen), S. O'Donnell (120+8' pen), C. Brown (120+9' pen), M. Ebiye (120+10' pen).

The match was played at Links Park in Montrose.

Montrose vs Motherwell — League Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Montrose vs Motherwell