Montrose 7–0 Inverurie Loco Works: Result & Stats

Montrose

7 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Inverurie Loco Works

7/8/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Montrose83%

×Draw11%

Inverurie Loco Works6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontroseExpected goals in this matchInverurie Loco Works

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.25

0.83

Montrose

3.25

Inverurie Loco Works

0.83

Montrose creates 292% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.50

creates per match

0.33

1.33

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Montrose

2.50

Inverurie Loco Works

0.33

allows per match

Montrose

1.33

Inverurie Loco Works

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par

Inverurie Loco Works+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

Inverurie Loco Works →

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Montrose or draw

94%

Montrose or Inverurie Loco Works

89%

Draw or Inverurie Loco Works

17%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+

65%

Inverurie Loco Works wins by 2+

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals

96%

Montrose 2+ goals

83%

Montrose 3+ goals

61%

Inverurie Loco Works 1+ goals

56%

Inverurie Loco Works 2+ goals

20%

Inverurie Loco Works 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)

93%

Inverurie Loco Works (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Inverurie Loco Works away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 2.50 + Inverurie Loco Works defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.25

Inverurie Loco Works attack 0.33 + Montrose defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 83%?"

Montrose scores more

83%

level

11%

Inverurie Loco Works scores more

Montrose at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Montrose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff