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Montrose vs Elgin City — League Cup 2018

Montrose
Montrose
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Elgin City
Elgin City
10/13/2020League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 5Links Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Montrose64%
×Draw20%
Elgin City17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montrose
2.20
Elgin City
1.03

Montrose creates 114% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Montrose
1.07
Elgin City
0.73

allows per match

Montrose
1.33
Elgin City
3.33

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par
Elgin City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

Elgin City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Montrose or draw
83%
Montrose or Elgin City
80%
Draw or Elgin City
36%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+
40%
Elgin City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals
89%
Montrose 2+ goals
64%
Montrose 3+ goals
37%
Elgin City 1+ goals
64%
Elgin City 2+ goals
28%
Elgin City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)
79%
Elgin City (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Elgin City away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 1.07 + Elgin City defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.20

Elgin City attack 0.73 + Montrose defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Montrose scores more
64%
level
20%
Elgin City scores more
17%

Montrose at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Montrose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Montrose 0–2 Elgin City

Elgin City beat Montrose 2-0 in League Cup on October 13, 2020.

The match was played at Links Park in Montrose.