Montrose 2–1 East Fife: Result & Stats

Montrose

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

East Fife

11/22/2025

League #183 · Round 15Links Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Montrose43%

×Draw25%

East Fife31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontroseExpected goals in this matchEast Fife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.25

Montrose

1.51

East Fife

1.25

Montrose creates 21% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

1.38

creates per match

0.76

1.75

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Montrose

1.38

East Fife

0.76

allows per match

Montrose

1.75

East Fife

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par

East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

East Fife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Montrose or draw

69%

Montrose or East Fife

75%

Draw or East Fife

57%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+

21%

East Fife wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals

78%

Montrose 2+ goals

44%

Montrose 3+ goals

19%

East Fife 1+ goals

71%

East Fife 2+ goals

36%

East Fife 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)

58%

East Fife (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

East Fife away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 1.38 + East Fife defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

East Fife attack 0.76 + Montrose defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Montrose scores more

43%

level

25%

East Fife scores more

31%

Montrose at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Montrose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff