Montrose 1–0 East Fife: Result & Stats | League Cup

Montrose

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

East Fife

D.J. Cavanagh 56'

7/17/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 3Links Park (Montrose)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Montrose59%

×Draw23%

East Fife18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontroseExpected goals in this matchEast Fife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.88

Montrose

1.79

East Fife

0.88

Montrose creates 103% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.07

creates per match

0.42

1.33

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Montrose

1.07

East Fife

0.42

allows per match

Montrose

1.33

East Fife

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par

East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

East Fife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Montrose or draw

82%

Montrose or East Fife

77%

Draw or East Fife

41%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+

34%

East Fife wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals

83%

Montrose 2+ goals

53%

Montrose 3+ goals

26%

East Fife 1+ goals

59%

East Fife 2+ goals

22%

East Fife 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)

76%

East Fife (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

East Fife away — creates 0.42, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 1.07 + East Fife defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.79

East Fife attack 0.42 + Montrose defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Montrose scores more

59%

level

23%

East Fife scores more

18%

Montrose at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Montrose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

C. Johnston← J. Skelly

56'

D.J. Cavanagh↳ R. Campbell

62'

P. Watson← R. Ferguson

64'

A. Dowds← P. Slattery

65'

K. Smith← J. Court

74'

M. Allan← M. Fotheringham

84'

C. Kane← A. Dunsmore

Montrose

East

1

Long

16

Meggatt

6

Watson

2

▼

12

5

17

8

▼

Slattery

14

Watt

7

Thomson

9

▼

21

14

18

5

3

11

▼

Ferguson

2

Masson

6

▼

Fothering

15

⚽

Cavanagh

20

A

Campbell

24

▼

Skelly

Manager: S. Petrie

46'▲C. Johnston←▼J. Skelly

62'▲P. Watson←▼R. Ferguson

74'▲M. Allan←▼M. Fotheringham

Montrose substitutes

16Johnston8Watson4Allan1Fleming12Macfarlane

Manager: D. Young

64'▲A. Dowds←▼P. Slattery

65'▲K. Smith←▼J. Court

84'▲C. Kane←▼A. Dunsmore

East Fife substitutes

15Dowds10Smith4Kane20Bell21Couser