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Montrose vs Civil Service Strollers — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Montrose
Montrose
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Civil Service Strollers
Civil Service Strollers
C. Brown 72'
G. Webster 64'
R. McAllister 62', 50'
T. Masson 27'
C. Yeats 90'
M. Laird 42'
7/8/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Links Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Montrose74%
×Draw14%
Civil Service Strollers12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montrose
3.08
Civil Service Strollers
1.17

Montrose creates 163% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Montrose
2.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.00

allows per match

Montrose
1.33
Civil Service Strollers
3.67

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par
Civil Service Strollers+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

Civil Service Strollers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Montrose or draw
88%
Montrose or Civil Service Strollers
86%
Draw or Civil Service Strollers
26%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+
55%
Civil Service Strollers wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals
95%
Montrose 2+ goals
81%
Montrose 3+ goals
58%
Civil Service Strollers 1+ goals
69%
Civil Service Strollers 2+ goals
33%
Civil Service Strollers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)
87%
Civil Service Strollers (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Civil Service Strollers away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 2.50 + Civil Service Strollers defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.08

Civil Service Strollers attack 1.00 + Montrose defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Montrose scores more
74%
level
14%
Civil Service Strollers scores more
12%

Montrose at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Montrose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
T. Masson
42'
M. Laird
50'
R. McAllister
62'
R. McAllister
64'
G. Webster
72'
C. Brown
90'
C. Yeats

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montrose vs Civil Service Strollers

Montrose beat Civil Service Strollers 5-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 8, 2023.

Goals: T. Masson (27'), M. Laird (42'), R. McAllister (50', 62'), G. Webster (64'), C. Brown (72'), C. Yeats (90').

The match was played at Links Park in Montrose.