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Montrose vs Brora Rangers — League Cup 2018

Montrose
Montrose
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Brora Rangers
Brora Rangers
7/10/2021League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2Links Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Montrose65%
×Draw20%
Brora Rangers14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montrose
2.04
Brora Rangers
0.83

Montrose creates 146% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Montrose
1.07
Brora Rangers
0.33

allows per match

Montrose
1.33
Brora Rangers
3.00

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par
Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

Brora Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Montrose or draw
86%
Montrose or Brora Rangers
80%
Draw or Brora Rangers
35%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+
41%
Brora Rangers wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals
87%
Montrose 2+ goals
60%
Montrose 3+ goals
33%
Brora Rangers 1+ goals
56%
Brora Rangers 2+ goals
20%
Brora Rangers 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)
82%
Brora Rangers (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Brora Rangers away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 1.07 + Brora Rangers defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Brora Rangers attack 0.33 + Montrose defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Montrose scores more
65%
level
20%
Brora Rangers scores more
14%

Montrose at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Montrose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Montrose 3–0 Brora Rangers

Montrose beat Brora Rangers 3-0 in League Cup on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Links Park in Montrose.